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Agricultural products continue to be weak and volatile

Raw sugar fluctuated slightly yesterday, boosted by expectations of a decline in Brazilian sugar production. The main contract hit a maximum of 14.77 cents per pound, the lowest fell to 14.54 cents per pound, and the final closing price fell 0.41% to close at 14.76 cents per pound. Sugar production in the main sugarcane producing areas of central and southern Brazil is expected to fall to a three-year low in the next year, due to the lack of replanting to reduce sugarcane yields and increased ethanol production. Kingsman estimates that sugar production in Brazil's central and southern regions will be 33.99 million tons in 2018-19. More than 90% of Brazil's national candy production in the south-central war. This sugar production level means a year-on-year decline of 2.1 million tons, and will be the lowest level since the production of 31.22 million tons in 2015-16. Relatively, the news that the National Reserve dumped the stocks was gradually being digested by the market. Although the sugar price fell again during the day, it lost its lost ground in the afternoon. With reference to the experience of other varieties, we believe that this dump will not affect the mid-term market trend. For short- and medium-term investors, they can wait for the price to stabilize and buy 1801 contracts on dips. In the option investment, for the spot dealers, the reserve option combination operation of rolling out the slightly imaginary call option can be carried out on the basis of the short-term holding of the spot. In the next 1-2 years, the operation of the alternative option combination can be As a booster of spot income, it continues; for value investors, you can also buy a imaginary call option with a strike price of 6,300 to 6,400. After waiting for the price of sugar to rise, the virtual option can be closed. In the previous period, the call option with low strike price continued to buy a new round of imaginary call options (call options with a strike price of 6500 or 6600), and gradually chose to take profit when the price of sugar reached 6,600 yuan/ton.

Cotton and cotton yarn

US cotton continues to fall, domestic cotton pressure callback

ICE cotton futures continued to fall yesterday, as concerns about the potential damage caused by Hurricane Maria to cotton diminished, the market waited for cotton harvesting, and the main ICE December cotton fell 1.05 cents per pound to 68.2 cents per pound. According to the latest data from USDA, the net contract of US cotton in 2017/18 was 63,100 tons in the week of September 14th, an increase of 47,500 tons from the previous month, an increase of 14,600 tons; the shipment was 41,100 tons, an increase of 15,700 tons, an increase of 0.36 year-on-year. 10,000 tons, the number of contracted shares accounted for 51% of the export forecast (September USDA), higher than the five-year average of 9%; domestically, Zheng cotton and cotton yarn pressureback, the final cotton main contract 1801 closed at 15,415 yuan / ton, down 215 yuan / ton, cotton yarn main 1801 contract closed at 23,210 yuan / ton, down 175 yuan / ton. In terms of reserve cotton rotation, 30024 tons were rotated on the 4th of this week, the actual turnover was 29,460 tons, and the transaction rate was 98.12%. The average transaction price fell 124 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton. On September 22, the planned rotation was 2.68. Ten thousand tons, of which 19,400 tons of Xinjiang cotton. The spot price held steady and the CC Index 3128B reported at 15,974 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream yarn stocks also held steady, with 32 carded yarn price indices of 23,400 yuan/ton and 40 combed yarns with price index of 26,900 yuan/ton. In short, US cotton continued to fall, domestic new flowers gradually listed, short-term Zheng cotton affected by this and maintained shocks, the bullish in the middle and late period, investors can wait for the US cotton to digest and gradually buy on the bargain. At the same time, the spot of cotton yarn has gradually strengthened. We can wait for the cotton yarn to stabilize and then buy it on the bargain.

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